Facebook won't last.
Knowing that doesn't require the skills of a Nostradamus--it's pretty much inevitable. Just as other social sites have fallen by the wayside (Friendster, MySpace, etc.), Facebook will follow. I'm not saying anything profound with that statement, so I want to focus instead on
why I think it will fail.
I don't think that Facebook will fail due to administrative error--the problem won't be due to any bad decisions that Zuckerberg or anyone else makes. It won't fail because it will suddenly be flooded with spammers and pornsters, one of the issues that plagued MySpace. It won't even fail by simply losing its novelty.
I believe that Facebook will ultimately fail because it is ultimately fake.
Most people on Facebook have upwards of 100 or 200 "friends." I've even seen some friend counts approaching 1,000. These friends are people that you (presumably) know in some way, and you have granted them access to your information, your photos, and your status updates. But how much further does it really go than that?
In the past week, I've seen some pretty intense status updates. One friend was mugged, beaten up, and had her car stolen. How many of her 400 friends commented with condolences or well wishes? About 20. Another friend lost a beloved grandparent. How many of his 500+ friends sent their sympathy? A dozen or so.
Now, granted--some of the close friends probably opted to show their support in other ways (phone calls, visits, etc.)-- but the majority of those 400 or 500 people aren't close friends. They are aquaintances who call themselves friends...and yet they didn't even take a couple of seconds to say "I'm sorry" or "Thinking of you." Ouch.
Another example is birthdays. Facebook actually offers the service of notifying you a couple of days in advance when any of your friends are about to celebrate a birthday--which leaves you with zero excuses for not wishing someone a happy birthday. And yet, the last time my birthday rolled around, I think I received about 10 birthday wishes from my 250+ friends. That's about 4% representin'. And based on my studies of other people's profiles and their birthday wishes, that seems to be pretty standard across the board.
So I believe that Facebook's failure will lie in its fakeness. I know that I personally am tiring of it. My 250+ number mocks me in a way, because I know that if I whittled the list down to my true friends-- down to the people that I could call at 2am if I needed them--the number would be much closer to 20 or so. So why have the extra 200-ish?
It's a question I have been pondering heavily lately (perhaps because I am on the doorstep of another birthday). As I get older, I am feeling the need to focus more on what's real, what's true, and what's really, truly important. And I believe that this movement in my soul is a natural progression.
In a world where so much is "virtual", I believe that we will begin to see more value being placed on things that are real. Real handwritten letters. Real experiences. Real relationships.
Which is why I believe that I am not the only person who will become disillusioned with Facebook. In the "real" revolution, there will be a sea change. And person by person, friend by fake friend, Facebook will fall.
And honestly, I think we'll all be better for it.
(soaking up the bee-yoo-tiful Saturday afternoon, lying on the front porch swing, sipping wine, and wearing my new birthday kicks.)
