Facebook won't last.
Knowing that doesn't require the skills of a Nostradamus--it's pretty much inevitable. Just as other social sites have fallen by the wayside (Friendster, MySpace, etc.), Facebook will follow. I'm not saying anything profound with that statement, so I want to focus instead on why I think it will fail.
I don't think that Facebook will fail due to administrative error--the problem won't be due to any bad decisions that Zuckerberg or anyone else makes. It won't fail because it will suddenly be flooded with spammers and pornsters, one of the issues that plagued MySpace. It won't even fail by simply losing its novelty.
I believe that Facebook will ultimately fail because it is ultimately fake.
Most people on Facebook have upwards of 100 or 200 "friends." I've even seen some friend counts approaching 1,000. These friends are people that you (presumably) know in some way, and you have granted them access to your information, your photos, and your status updates. But how much further does it really go than that?
In the past week, I've seen some pretty intense status updates. One friend was mugged, beaten up, and had her car stolen. How many of her 400 friends commented with condolences or well wishes? About 20. Another friend lost a beloved grandparent. How many of his 500+ friends sent their sympathy? A dozen or so.
Now, granted--some of the close friends probably opted to show their support in other ways (phone calls, visits, etc.)-- but the majority of those 400 or 500 people aren't close friends. They are aquaintances who call themselves friends...and yet they didn't even take a couple of seconds to say "I'm sorry" or "Thinking of you." Ouch.
Another example is birthdays. Facebook actually offers the service of notifying you a couple of days in advance when any of your friends are about to celebrate a birthday--which leaves you with zero excuses for not wishing someone a happy birthday. And yet, the last time my birthday rolled around, I think I received about 10 birthday wishes from my 250+ friends. That's about 4% representin'. And based on my studies of other people's profiles and their birthday wishes, that seems to be pretty standard across the board.
So I believe that Facebook's failure will lie in its fakeness. I know that I personally am tiring of it. My 250+ number mocks me in a way, because I know that if I whittled the list down to my true friends-- down to the people that I could call at 2am if I needed them--the number would be much closer to 20 or so. So why have the extra 200-ish?
It's a question I have been pondering heavily lately (perhaps because I am on the doorstep of another birthday). As I get older, I am feeling the need to focus more on what's real, what's true, and what's really, truly important. And I believe that this movement in my soul is a natural progression.
In a world where so much is "virtual", I believe that we will begin to see more value being placed on things that are real. Real handwritten letters. Real experiences. Real relationships.
Which is why I believe that I am not the only person who will become disillusioned with Facebook. In the "real" revolution, there will be a sea change. And person by person, friend by fake friend, Facebook will fall.
And honestly, I think we'll all be better for it.
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6 comments:
great post. you nailed it!
I totally agree. Facebook's become less a place to find old friends than a place to "collect" as many acquaintances as you can. I like that we can find our old high school buddies there but I don't have any interest in being "poked" or playing trivia games :)
i would like to find the inventor of mafiawars and farmville and dig their heart out with a spoon.
I like Facebook because it's the number one source of my blog traffic. It's not where I keep my secrets. I've written before on how it's really more like high school--a popularity contest--than anything else.
Still, when I get bored, I find myself going there to be entertained. Just can't help myself!
i feel the very same way- i hate faKebook too.
besides the fact it's just a conglomeration of who can collect more 'friends'-- like you said-- it's also a doorway to making one feel neglected-- in a time of need - or friendship.
yep-- i say-- blogging-- that's where souls are bared-- and real friends are made.
no mafia- no farms- just hearts and souls, and true colors--
yeh, some folks who blog-- don't show who they really are-- they have phony personas of who they want people to think they are.
but for the most part-- there are good people out there, who you can really get to know through what they write on their blogs.
good or bad-- who knows.
but it beats one liners that can be transparent, at best.
happy sunday-
It could be that facebook won't fail, but evolve.
For me, it has turned into more a place to keep tabs on people I know and want to keep a relationship with, even if the relationship doesn't ever get to the "call at 2 am level".
One way it really worked for me was that it allowed M and me to contact people we had lost touch with on our journey across the states - and it led to some wonderful evenings, talks, and warm beds and nice meals. Without facebook, it would've been more difficult, if not impossible, for us to do. It also let me know that even if I don't have regular contact with many of my "friends" they are people I could contact without feeling awkward. Perhaps facebook should change from "friending" people to "acquaintancing" people?
Facebook has even turned into more of a twitter-style communication network with the status updates (except there are more than 140 charaters allowed). The status updates seem not to be a conversation anymore. They have changed to becoming millions of mini-blogs in which you choose your your followers instead of them choosing you. Along with updates on personal stuff, I get information from people's postings of articles, pics, videos, etc. In other words, what is interesting to the people I am connected with. It may not be personal, but these are things that make up their personalities and I feel that I benefit from that, even if not all of my "friends" contact me personally - but that is my choice to feel that way and I fully understand why someone else not feel the same way.
To me, facebook is changing from a friends place to more of a communications hub - and that is not for everyone. It is a place for people to come together - and people can decide how they want to come together. People can be friend collectors, but one also has the choice to be more discerning. I think facebook will continue to evolve and stay around, until google comes up with something better (and buzz ain't it).
I see your point about the "real-ness" of certain forms of communication and contact. Writing a personal letter is tough - and I don't mean that facetiously. It takes time, thought, effort to write; effort to get an envelop and stamp; effort to drop it off at the post office. When compared to e-mail or facebook - it is amazing any letters get sent at all! There is something to be said about friends who put in that kind of effort. And, BTW, you are right about birthdays - no excuse with facebook if you're checking it everyday.
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